What I Believe

While climbing an observation tower leading towards the canopy of a Brazilian rainforest, Christoph (of Hotspot Tours) asked for an update to my Rebound Romantic philosophy published years ago in Infinite Nature. Here is the jeito-inspired update.

I begin at the beginning.  I believe evolution, ecology, and astrophysics are the originators and organizers of life. More recently, humans have gotten seriously involved in these endeavors; hence the dawn of the Antropocene.  I also believe Moral Truth is constructed and learned. No absolute moral truths exist, whether bestowed by nature or by a supernatural.  Truth must be negotiated and then experienced.  Negotiation leads to shared agreement.  Experience leads to learning: we learn by doing because we don’t know what we want until we have it.   A foundation is required upon which these negotiations begin.  We have to start from somewhere. I start with three assumptions: I am tolerant of humans search for dignity;  I have profound appreciation of our ecological interdependencies; I am humble in the face of complexity.

Tolerance for the pursuit of dignity requires I respect the meanings and goals others set for themselves as being as legitimate as the meanings and goals I set for myself. Gandhi, King, and Jesus offer parables and philosophies based on a similar premise.  Many world religions have a do-onto-other principle.  So, I feel in good company making this assumption. My appreciation for ecological interdependencies is less widely shared.  It requires accepting that humans are plain members and citizens of the biotic community. We must conserve rather than dominate.  Perhaps we should act as a first among equals, or perhaps even take a leadership role—the extent to which humanity take on a leadership role in the biotic community requires continued negotiation as we realize and learn our increasing role increasing the biota at the emergence of the Anthropocene. Leopold’s ethics and honesty are more relevant than ever.  We are embedded in the biota, and that interdependent community provides moral and material harvests to its members.  These interdependencies create moral and practical obligations and responsibilities.  Our heavy reliance on fellow citizens of the biota suggest we should carry heavy responsibilities, and shame.

We also must be humble.  Individuals and institutions are weak.  Our capacity for restraint is limited and waxes then wanes with increasing affluence.  Prudence is not easy.  It requires work and sacrifice and tolerance.  But it allows us to build roads and infrastructure, to get educated, to invest in research and social services we might need in the future, to regulate safe food and risky financial investments, to act responsibly towards challenges of biodiversity collapse and climate chaos, and to care not just about ourselves but for our legacy. The decisions required of us today—the challenges before us—are hugely complex with many unknowns and unknowables.  Their solutions requires a community response, a tolerance for uncertainty, a willingness to trust others to do the right thing…the capacity to act with humility, care and prudence.  Affluence builds these capacities, allowing us to delay gratification, look forward, and build institutions.  Without affluence we can only live in moment, surviving day to day. One of the most damaging consequences of too much affluence is that it enables individualistic, consumption-driven, consumer-oriented lifestyles and consequently hollows out the willingness and capacity to deal with complex tasks.  As we approach 2050, societies around the world are gaining affluence and losing prudence.

Our primary challenge, complicated by our arrogance and affluence, is to negotiate, celebrate, and practice dignity and citizenship. Creating and maintaining sustainable behavior will remain a constant battle, perhaps a new cultural understanding is not possible without revolution.  Maybe the best we can hope for is that prudence will result from good leadership AND a meaningful story to inspire sacrifice and give direction. Leadership needs a new story.

Finally, we must be pragmatic.  Revolution is difficult and dangerous: reform is within reach but requires compromising or postponing ideals. Until a radical third way emerges, a pragmatic, reformist path of sustainable development into the future requires we reform rather than revolutionize economic and nature narratives and practices. Several tactics are emerging, but they require hard choices:

  1. Sustainable consumption and production: Harness and steer towards sustainability challenges the most competent management capacity in the world—business.
  2. Ecosystem Services: Sacrifice content for function.  Mange places for the ecological functions they provide rather than the species and pictures they support.  Nature-loving, content-oriented ENGOs must reorient to collaborate, bridge, partner with business and governments to price, manage, and account for ecosystem services that support urban communities and corporate profits.
  3. Urbanize: Promote growth of smart, sustainable urban areas that entice people to live, work, learn and play. The battle for the future will be won are lost with the infrastructure of urban development.
  4. Nature Preserves: Battle to save hunks of nature and biodiversity.  Romantics will win important battles here, but the war will be won or lost with management of ecosystem services and with urban development using business capacity and motive.
  5. The landscape created by following this pragmatic, reformist development trajectory will consist of a vast humanized middle intensively managed to provide resources and ecosystem services dotted by small but separate areas for people and nature.

Where do I want to live in the future?  A future conducive to human dignity, with respect for biodiversity, and with meaningful opportunities for my babies to negotiate with your babies about the future they want.

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Brazil can feed the world

Brazil is known for its stunning scenery, tasty caipirinhas, tantalizing carnivals, mighty Amazon river and enormous rainforest, but its real fame will come from the contributions of water and arable land to the 2050 story.  Brazil can feed the world.

Take soybeans as an example. Already China imports 14% of its water needs by its strategic decision to buy soybeans from Brazil rather than grow the water-hungry crop domestically.  Soybean exports from Brazil increased five-fold in the last decade to meet that demand.  This trend seems likely to continue because China’s demand for imported soybeans is projected to increase more than 40% over the next decade.

Brazil has more spare farmland than any country in the world. The FAO puts its total potential arable land at over 400 million hectares, with only 50 million being used. In northern Brazil, where massive ports are being built to handle exponentially increasing grain exports, the land suitable for farming grains totals 7.5 million hectares, only 17.9%, or little over one million hectares, are currently managed for agriculture, mainly by low-efficiency pasture-fed livestock operations.  Soybeans occupy only 0.46% of the area that in theory could be expanded for farmland without deforestation. Much of the land is protected rainforest and thus Brazil’s untapped potential is much larger.

Brazil also has the water, as much as the whole of Asia.  Importantly, the land and the water are in the same place, a good fortune many countries don’t have. Even one of the Brazil’s driest areas gets a third more water than America’s bread basket.

Can Brazilian agricultural production be sustainable while protecting the rainforest?  Yes.  Take soy as an example.  Sustainable practices are possible and encouraged thanks to the impressive partnership Brazilian state and national governments such as SEMA, multinational commodity traders such as Cargill, and local and international ENGOs such as The Nature Conservancy.  The Soybean Moratorium is a brokered agreement by major exporters to not buy soybeans grown on land created by deforesting the rainforest.  Moreover, the model partnership of TNC, Cargill, and SEMA, has created a land registry program (CAR) that provides the accountability and transparency necessary for a stable, sustainable agriculture development trajectory that enforces Brazil’s powerful environmental regulations (such as the Forest Code), builds infrastructure and economic development opportunities of residents, and is creating the potential to feed the world.

The 2050 trends are motivating investors to buy up farmland around the world.  The big rush raises serious questions about ownership, autonomy and control.  I’m not sure what Brazil should do about it, but it is a good problem to have. We are fortunate that Brazil can feed the world.

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Towards which future should we aim?

Kloor’s recent blast about the schism in environmentalism echoes Nordhaus and Shellenberger‘s claim that environmentalism was dead or should die.  These reoccurring tussles over the purpose of environmentalism stumble over a familiar tension: sustainable development versus environmental protection.

We can avoid the tussle by avoiding connotations of stasis, status quo, or worse, primitivism.  We must be enticed to look to the future, not to the past: too many people have not yet achieved lifestyles they want to sustain and we must nurture the human desires to aspire, explore, and sacrifice. My rationale builds on the work of Brundtland, Norton, and Solow.  The commons are the key to sustainability and we must devise ways to nurture them.

We must promote world peace and human dignity.  World peace, I hope, is obvious: it protects life and community, warns against hubris and abuse of power, requires tolerance and collaboration, and reminds us to treat others as we would like to be treated.   Human dignity requires the continuous improvement of human potential. It can be found in themes that intentionally echo in the US Declaration of Independence’s call for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.  Dignity advances enlightenment goals and moderates the age-old tension between individual and community. I advocate for dignity—not Jefferson’s happiness or Locke’s property—because achieving it requires progress toward our potential rather than entertainment or obtainment.   Dignity, like liberty, connotes the ability of humans to choose their own actions, but, and this is an important but, it also imposes positive obligations to actively assist (and not harm) others in their pursuits of their potentials.  Dignity promotes liberty and justice for all.

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Leadership Plus Science

Integrative, multi-disciplinary science is necessary for charting a sustainable development trajectory to 2050, but it is not sufficient.  Yes, of course we need more climate science, sustainability science, and resiliency science.  We also need more and better resource sciences (water, soil, oil), social sciences (economics, politics, people), and the engineering sciences (agricultural, information, mechanical, and more recently biological).  But all the understanding in the world probably wont solve the challenges that lie ahead.  We need leadership capacity.

A recent PNAS history of climate science reviews the long and torturous history of efforts to meaningfully integrate social and ecological system-science to the point of providing useful/powerful information.  It demonstrates a bias for understanding when we need a bias for action.

A major distinction exists between most university programs and CLiGS, a recent effort I’ve become associated with. CLiGS build leadership capacity to affect change in sustainability systems rather than build science/models to understand the system, a subtle but critical difference.

Leadership actions within a system as complex as climate require courage and opportunism.  Leadership requires being informed about the system, stakeholders and strategies, but never fully mastering them. It requires responding to black-swan events with leadership skills that give direction, alignment and commitment to the partial and evolving expertise of a diverse group of well (and sometimes not well) intentioned stakeholders.  An informed scientific understanding of the system is important, but a distant second to leadership.

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Beyond Bio-Blitzs

When we share ideas about creating our future, two story-lines dominate. One is characterized by profit, work, discipline, achievement, productivity, efficiency, industry, and growth.  It goes by the name of Economic Development.  The other is characterized by protection, appreciation, wildness, parks, leaving no trace, virgin forests, ecological restoration, and exotic species neurosis.  We call it Ecological Preservation.  A third story-line is sustainable development.  Unfortunately, the latter seems a more difficult story to tell. We have fewer illustrations of success stories to emulate and fewer charismatic characters with which to identify. We struggle defining meaningful roles doing the hard work of envisioning, innovating, and building a sustainable development path into the future.  Lacking a third story, we fall victim to the human-nature dichotomy that so paralyzes and polarizes politics and philosophy about matters regarding the “environment.”

BioBlitz shines the brief but intense light on the biodiversity of a specific place.  Lenses crafted through scientific, artistic, media, political, and philanthropic excellence focus the light.  This strategy follows the Preservation script.  It puts nature in the spotlight, on display, atop a pedestal, making nature important and distinct.  It celebrates nature, not human relationship to it.  The resulting distinctiveness inclines us to put nature in a preservation system: identify nature degradation as a problem and solve it by drawing a line around the area where it occurs to keep out economic development. We need this strategy, and more of it, especially the parts that raise public understanding and emotional attachment to biodiveristy.   But the preservation strategy is insufficient, and potentially even harmful if it distracts us from the more difficult task of sustainable development.

The real challenge of the 2050 transitions is navigating between, or above, these two polarizing extremes and charting a sustainable development trajectory towards a healthy, thriving and tolerant future.  We know how to inspire conversion of natural capital into economic wealth.  We know how to inspire preservation and restoration of wildness.  We don’t yet know how to inspire sustainable development.  We need a story line that celebrates a bio-cultural relationship.  We need  Sustainable Development Spectacles or an Ecosystem Services Extravaganzas.

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A Tough Choice: Biodiversity or Ecosystem Services

The 2050 transitions are creating some difficult choices.  Decisions made between now and 2050 will define the future of humanity: the human population will grow to 9 billion or more; the proportion of people living in cities will approach 75%; the middle class will rise exponentially, bringing with it dramatic shifts in consumer demand; and climate, biodiversity, and water are poised to create substantial environmental challenges.  It is an exciting time that stands to close the poverty gap, improve quality of life, and provide opportunities not imaginable a century ago. It’s also a decisive time for the challenges of sustainable development.

The environmental movement struggles to redefine itself.  A great schism exists between the preservationists and the pragmatists.   The eco-pragmatists have hitched a ride on the sustainable development bus, which might be paving over, or at least driving over, wild, bio-diverse, natural conditions the preservationists fight to protect. The implications of a rising world-wide standard of living are profound, so profound that they motivate my pragmatist bones to question long held priorities.

The new and emerging priorities elevate ecosystem services over biodiversity—function over content.  The new priorities will justify hard, painful, and even tragic choices.  We are heading to a future of harnessed and engineered ecosystem services providing the water, air, nutrient, climate, and recycling services that our lifestyles and economies demand—an entirely instrumental nature and something that my hero Aldo Leopold warned against. Bumpy roads ahead.

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2050 Transitions

Four  transitions are creating a pivotal moment in the history of humanity: demographics, markets, governance, and environment.

Demographic Trends: Urbanization in Asia and Africa, Redevelopment in the West.  Urbanization is a defining feature of humanity’s development trajectory: in 1800 less than 10% of people lived in urban areas, in 2000 it was 50%, by 2050 it will be closer to 75%. Asia has been urbanizing more rapidly than anywhere else for several decades, making the region home to almost half of all the world’s city dwellers. As world population increases to nearly 10 billion people by 2050—essentially adding another China and several USAs between now and then—most of the new people will live in an Asian city. In response to these pressures and opportunities, cities will double in size by 2050, adding 400,000 square kilometers of infrastructure: an almost unimaginable amount of utilities, roads, roofs, and markets. It took humanity until the year 2000 to build up 400,000 square kilometers of urban area. We will add that much again in the next 40 years. Almost as much existing urban area will be redeveloped; for example, over 40 percent of “urban” areas in the United States will be redeveloped by 2030. Think of the opportunity to get things right: cities are major drivers of resource use and economic development. How can they also be drivers of “sustainable” development?

Market Transformations: More Sustainable Consumption.  By 2050, the global economy will likely be 4-times larger than today, dramatically reducing poverty and malnutrition, and ushering billions into a connected, empowered, global middle class. The opportunities and challenges for businesses are immense. Enticingly, the addition of billions of wealthy consumers creates countless new business opportunities. On the other hand, the additional demands placed on natural resources and systems will strain already stressed ecosystems services, especially water and climate. The consequent scarcities and fragilities create risks for business operations, risks that businesses are developing management capacities to address. A host of business motivations exist for sustainable consumption practices. Risk management is one motivation and risk factors are mounting as we move towards 2050.[1] Climate change increases the frequency of damaging frosts, 100-year floods, and similarly events disruptive to business operations.[2] Social media interconnectivity and a 24-hour news cycle can create brand damaging public relations fiascos if a company finds itself on the wrong side of an environmental disaster, threat to public health, or labor practices deemed unfair.  Investors and insurers are increasingly cautious of risky and unsustainable practices.[3]  Better employee recruitment and retention provides another motive for businesses to align themselves with the sustainable consumption strategy. Employees consider a company’s sustainability efforts during the job search, so businesses with meaningful CSR programs attract higher quality employees. As importantly, meaningful CSR programs affect long-term retention of great employees. Companies simply cannot afford to ignore or lose parts of the workforce.[4] Finally, there is polling evidence suggesting that a small but significant percentage of consumers will buy “green” products if the item is of comparable price and quality to alternatives.  Hence, sustainable consumption may provide a marketing advantage for some businesses.

Governance Transitions: Collaboration, Partnerships and Networks.  The challenges of 2050 are larger and different than 20th Century institutions can solve.  Government fiscal resources are curtailed, as is its moral authority.  Laws and policies, still effectively solving end-of-pipe environmental problems such as emission of toxic chemicals, are less effective at non-point, globally distributed challenges such as climate. New strategies, innovations, and institutional arrangements are needed. Cross-sector collaboration–partnerships among business, government, and civil society institutions—is required to solve 21st Century challenges.  Institutions from each sector bring unique resources and moral authority to problems none of them can solve alone.

Environmental Changes: The Anthropocene.  Through continued industrialization, modernization, and globalization, the biosphere will be undeniably humanized by 2050. Humanity must accept the moral responsibility of being the biosphere’s steward. Capacity must emerge to manage impaired ecosystem services.  Climate change, for example, will be fully upon us, so adaptive mechanisms will need intense development.  Water and other resources will be scarcer, requiring massive infrastructure investments. Agriculture productivity may more than double to feed more and more wealthy mouths.  Biodiversity, fisheries, and most every planetary limit will be stressed.  Sustainable development will require adaptation and management rather than conservation and preservation.  While there may not be hard limits, we no doubt will learn harsh lessons by catastrophic failures of natural systems that may motivate water wars and climate migration.  We will have to learn from these past mistakes to re-engineer and restore ecosystem functions that support and sustain life.

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More Sustainable Development Please

Most Americans agree: they to create more prosperous, convenient, equitable, healthy and attractive places to live.  79% of respondents to an American Planning Association poll agree that they want careful, inclusive, community-based planning processes.  They ranked the top five qualities of an “ideal community.”

  1. Locally owned businesses nearby
  2. Being able to stay in the same neighborhood while aging
  3. Availability of sidewalks
  4. Energy-efficient homes
  5. Availability of transit

How can we let the anti-sustainability, anti-Agenda 21, anti-planning, anti-livability, anti-infrastructure, anti-investment crowd gain such purchase as to outlaw these efforts at the state level and disrupt sincere planning processes at the local level?

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Riff on President JFK’s 1963 Peace Speech

I hope it is neither sacrileges nor arrogant to riff on President JFK’s 1963  Post-Cuban Missile Crisis Peace Address at American University[1]

[E]xamine our attitude towards sustainable development. [2] Too many of us think it is impossible. Too many think it is unreal.  But that is a dangerous, defeatist belief.  It leads to the conclusion that poverty and ecological collapse [3]are inevitable, that mankind is doomed, that we are gripped by forces we cannot control.  We need not accept that view.  Our problems are manmade; therefore, they can be solved by man.  And man can be as big as he wants.  No problem of human destiny is beyond human beings.  Man’s reason and spirit have often solved the seemingly unsolvable, and we believe they can do it again.  I am not referring to the absolute, infinite concept of completely decoupling economic growth from consumption of natural capital[4] of which some fantasies and fanatics dream.  I do not deny the value of hopes and dreams, but we merely invite discouragement and incredulity by making that our only and immediate goal.

Let us focus instead on a more practical, more attainable development trajectory,[5] based not on the sudden revolution in human nature but on a gradual evolution in human institutions—on a series of concert action and effective agreements which are in the interest of all concerned.  There is no single, simple key to this development trajectory[6]; no grand or magic formula to be adopted by one or two powers.  Genuine sustainable development[7] must be the product of many nations, the sum of many acts. It must be dynamic, not static, changing to meet the challenges of each new generation.  For sustainable development[8] is a process—a way of solving problems.


[3] actual wording “war”

[4] actual wording “universal peace and goodwill”

[5] actual wording “peace”

[6] actual wording “peace”

[7] actual wording “peace”

[8] actual wording “peace”

Posted in Convergence 2050 | 1 Comment

Anti-Agenda 21’s Agenda

Messages, materials, and tactics of so-called “local citizen groups” from Virginia to California share strikingly similar language and logic.  The Anti Agenda 21 movement is being organized and funded from afar.  Some investigators point to the usual suspects who typically bankroll  anti-progressive campaigns—but the money is hard to follow from the armchair where I sit.  It is much easier to find—hard to miss, actually—the support and advocacy provided to anti-Agenda 21 campaigns by the John Birch Society . They distribute an “Agenda 21 Roll-back Manual” (for free) and you can buy 100 anti-Agenda 21 pamphlets for distribution at your government local meetings (for just $75, plus shipping and handling).

The motivations of the anti-Agenda 21 agitators are not clear.  Is it a sinister attempt to further incapacitate government oversight of capitalist enterprises—in this case paralyze local control of the local economy?  Or, is it a sincere effort to debate the balance between individual liberties and community obligations? Andrew Reinbach, in a bold Hufington Post blog, conjectures that the motives of the John Birch Society are more mundane—to attract attention and to fill its bank account.

I hope Anti-Agenda 21 advocates take a few moments to ponder whether (1) they are being manipulated and (2) whether they want to throw in with a group regularly associated with racism, anti-Semitism, homophobia, and communist-Freemason-Illuminati conspiracy theories.  At least the John Birch Society does not shy from sharing its agenda: In response to the civil rights movements in the 1960s, for example, they sponsored a campaign opposing the use of federal officers to enforce civil rights laws.

If you are opposed to Agenda 21, make sure you know why.

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