Coronavirus & Climate Challenge Science’s Status

A dangerous side-effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is that the institution of science and the role of expertise are being further politicized and ultimately weakened.

In this way, the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change are similar. They both can be viewed through a cost-benefit-risk lens that raises the question of whether the cure is worse than the disease (see Table).

Science likely loses status no matter how the pandemic plays out.  If science does not come to the rescue with a vaccine or treatment, then subsidizing it appears less useful or necessary. If expert-driven government policies suppressing infection are successful until a vaccine/treatment can be developed, then fewer people will die and medical systems will not be overwhelmed. Therefore it will appear that the responses recommended by scientific experts were overblown hype, hence diminishing the standing of experts.

The same logic applies to climate change.  If science does not come to the rescue with carbon capture and clean energy, then subsidizing climate science appears less useful or necessary. Likewise, if climate mitigation policies are successful, then Earth warms less, fewer disruptions occur, and it will appear that the concerns of climate scientists were alarmist, hence diminishing the standing of experts.

Even though science would be critical to the successful outcomes in both scenarios, the institution of science gets damaged and the need for expertise questioned.

How should scientists position their recommendations so that science does not lose standing by being successful?

COVID Climate Change
Government Mitigation Policy o Require quarantine and business closures to reduce transmission

o (Technological rescue: Invention of vaccine or treatment)

o Price or regulate carbon to reduce GHG emissions

o (Technological rescue: Invention of carbon capture, clean fuel, storage)

Cost of Mitigation Policy o Unemployment.

o Grow federal debt to fund relief.

o Long term recession

Death/illness because of delayed medical treatment

o Slow economic growth.

o Reduce fossil fuel profits.

o Empower government intervention in market and technology and risk of crony capitalism

Benefit of Policy

(risk reduction)

o Reduce death and suffering

o Save the social capital that governance and markets need.

o Hospitals not overwhelmed

o Maintain viable health care capacity

 

o Less costly adaptation (i.e., cities don’t need to relocate from rising from sea level

o Less disruption to public health, agriculture, defense, transportation infrastructure, and other foundations of civilization

o Fewer failed states and climate refugees

Uncertainty o People cause the problem by behavior that transmits COVID. People change their behavior in response to information about risk and contagion, thereby changing contagion and thereby changing predictions.

o Novel system conditions: Science has not seen similar conditions. Unknown how infection spreads or virus responds to medicine.

o Novel conditions require development of novel policies and technologies of untested efficacy.

o People cause the problem by behavior that emits GHGs. People change their behavior in response to information about risk of climate change and price of fuels, thereby changing emissions and thereby changing predictions

o Novel system conditions: Science has not seen similar conditions. Unknown how biosphere will respond to increased GHG concentrations.

o Novel conditions require development of novel policies and technologies of untested efficacy.

Perversity If policies are successful, then fewer people will die and medical systems will not be overwhelmed. Therefore it will appear that the extreme response recommended by experts was overblown hype, diminishing the standing of experts. If policies are successful, then climate will not change. Therefore it will appear that the extreme response recommended by experts was overblown hype, diminishing the standing of experts.
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Network Propaganda Loops Made My Breakfast

Yesterday I was eating lunch at a local restaurant and caused the people seated in the booth next to me to pick up their food and move.  My transgression?  I was reading the New York Times.

They groaned and huffed as soon as I sat down and flipped open my laptop.  I guess they could see the headline. It probably said something about Trump. I asked if there was a problem (worried perhaps that I forgot to brush my teeth or change my underwear).  The man pointed to the NYT article on my screen: “how can you read that crap?”

I’d actually thought about that question a lot, especially after reading Network Propaganda: Manipulation, Disinformation, and Radicalization in American Politics by Yochai Benkler, Robert Faris, and Hal Roberts, so it was game on, and I responded to their query with a bit more enthusiasm then they expected:

“I read outlets like the NYTs because they use standards of professional journalism developed in the good-old-days of the 1940s and 50s.”

I could see their eyes dart around with a bit of uncertainty.

“Those were the days when news outlets corrected one another based on reality. Today there still exist a constellation of media outlets that police one another with reality-based fact-checking.  They call out and chastise factual mistakes, reward and acknowledge scoops, and thus create a self-corrective system that helps readers and viewers understand the world. The New York Times is part of that system.”

“I assume you watch Fox News?,” I asked.

I paused to take a breath while they blinked at me, mouths agape.  They cautiously nodded yes, not wanting to give me too much encouragement.

“Fox is part of the constellation of news and social media outlets that focus on ideology not reality.  They correct one another based on inconsistency. They critique people who say or write anything that contradicts political dogma, such as worrying climate change, questioning Donald Trump, or recognizing that America’s growth and power depend upon immigrants and immigration.”

“You can recognize media captured by this propaganda loop because they don’t debate facts, they just dismiss facts as fake news.  They attack the messenger instead of the message.  They question the speaker’s credibility, patriotism, honesty and character. They are very, very tribal and use a lot of ‘us’ versus ‘them’ language. Rather than focus on reality and question the situation, they instead argue about supporting or not supporting the ideas that define group membership.”

“You can hear it if you just listen!”

Their mouths were now closed and expressions stern. They exchanged glances, quick nods, and were soon off to the other side of the restaurant.  My food arrived and the omelet tasted great; I had worked up an appetite.

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Are You Biased About Climate? Yes!

Check out my recent blog

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Stop Blaming Climate Deniers

Climate change is attracting much public attention. Book clubs and community groups are discussing it. 16-year-old Greta Thunberg is making powerful speeches. Young people are striking. Scientific reports about rising temperatures and declining food harvests are shared on social media.  All this attention is good. We need more of it. Climate challenges are real and significant.

But, instead of being delighted by hearing more about climate, I’m frustrated by the message: blame.  Politicians are blamed for not acting. News outlets are blamed for promoting fake news. Energy companies are blamed for being selfish. Climate deniers are blamed for being ignorant or in the pocket of energy companies.

We need to stop blaming and figure out how to collaborate on solutions that solve our climate challenges while also increasing prosperity, health, equity, and innovation. That is, we need to translate all the talk into action. Blaming and complaining help, but only to a point.

Most people are ambivalent about climate action not because they are ignorant or evil but because they worry that the cure is worse than the disease.  The Green New Deal, carbon tax, cap-and-trade, meatless Mondays, and the like could slow economic growth, delay life-saving innovations, condemn millions to poverty, weaken national defense, harm democracy, and otherwise make things worse.

Many people believe, with good reason, that we can grow our way out of this problem. If we keep growing the economy and advancing technology, then we could obtain the wealth and capacity needed to adapt to any future that climate change creates.  Whereas if we stifle innovation with too much regulation or dismantle motivations that underlie capitalism, then we risk becoming weaker, poorer, less healthy, less educated, and less able to adapt, not just to climate change, but to other challenges we cannot yet imagine.

What society needs–what the climate action community needs to promote–is the ability to collaboratively identify and implement solutions that satisfy those of us who fear climate change as an existential risk as well as satisfy those of us who fear dismantling the engines of progress. That will require the hard work of trust-building, collaborative innovation, and leadership by people in every sector: business, government, and civil society.  At some point, blaming our collaborators becomes counterproductive.

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Between Paradigms

One implication of transitioning to the Anthropocene is that we are in-between paradigms and hence experiencing heightened levels of conflict and confusion about values and expectations that guide our decisions and actions.   We are searching for a new paradigm to understand human-nature relationships and the meaning of sustainable development.

The human development paradigm, which emphasized improving health, wealth, and other human conditions while ignoring the environment as anything other than a source of natural capital to be efficiently managed and allocated, is less and less potent because it’s getting harder to ignore the power of human action to disrupt biosphere conditions that provide a safe, nurturing operating space of humanity.  

The alternative (new) environmental paradigm, which seeks to preserve and protect nature as something wild, balanced, inherently valued, and other than human, also makes less sense given the recognition that conditions of the biosphere are as much human as natural.  It is increasingly difficult to ignore the interdependence of humans and nature or the ethical imperative of helping billions move out of poverty into the global middle class and the impacts on natural capital and ecological systems greater prosperity will bring.

A clearly articulated Anthropocene Paradigm has yet to emerge.

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Water From Oil

I was exploring Dubai, searching for sustainability lessons to share with students and clients who travel on study tours with Center for Leadership in Global Sustainability, and boy did I find a doozy.  Dubai figured out how to turn oil into water, build one of the world’s most dynamic and striking skyscraper studded cities, and become an exemplar of sustainable development.

Oil was discovered in the 1960s near what was then a hot and thirsty town of under 50,000 people. The population now approaches 3 million and may exceed 5 million within 10 years.  It’s no secret how it happened: wise vision, strong governance, and strategic investments.  The latter is the focus of this blog: Dubai’s leaders invested limited oil revenues into technology and infrastructure that produces the water a growing city needs.

Massive desalination plants, some solar powered, now extract nearly all Dubai’s drinking water from plentiful seawater.  Groundwater is still pumped for agriculture and other uses, but it can be saltier than seawater so it also can require treatment.  Freshwater recharge of aquifers is increasing slightly because of regular cloudseeding to increase rain. Wastewater is treated and recycled into a vast drip-irrigation network that supports agriculture and landscaping.  With all these investments in infrastructure, people living in one of the driest places on Earth now use more water per person than most anywhere else on the world, three times more than the average EU resident.

Dubai begs the question: what is sustainable development?  Sustainable development’s ambiguity has always been the concept’s power and weakness: the ambiguity brings people to the table but they talk about different things.  Fungibility underlies many of the debates over sustainability: it is a technical concept that confuses most of my students, whether they be undergraduates, PhDs, or business executives. But once fungibility is understood, it is easier to understand what’s really being debated when people argue over what sustainable development means for their community.

Defining fungibility requires introducing two more terms: natural and social capital.  Natural capital is the rain, oil, soil, wild places, biodiversity, and other services and things nature provides humans free of charge.  Social capital is humanity’s wealth, inventions, infrastructure, institutions, laws, universities, governments, medicine, science, religion, art, and everything else humans use to promote our health, safety, prosperity, and enjoyment. We harvest, mine, develop, farm, hunt, and otherwise use natural capital: some of it we consume, some of it we invest and use to build social capital.

The key to sustainable development is strategically investing enough of the proceeds from harvesting natural capital to build the social capital needed to replace the services and functions previously produced by the consumed/destroyed natural capital.  It is tempting to just consume all the natural capital in ways that directly and immediately improve our material quality of life.  Sustainable development, however, requires knowing how much of the revenues from natural capital to consume and how much to invest and in what to invest.

Back to Dubai.  Wealth from oil (natural capital) was wisely invested, not just in a remarkable water infrastructure (social capital). It was also invested in ports, finance centers, innovation hubs, universities, solar panels, and many other engines of prosperity and sustainability.  Now oil contributes a small amount to the total economy and proceeds from other investments can, if managed wisely, construct sufficient social capital to sustain development.

The catch: the seawater is becoming saltier because desalination extracts fresh water but dumps salt back in, making desalination more expensive and more difficult —there is talk of the Gulf reaching “peak salt.”  That is, the natural capital of the Gulf’s (lightly salted water) is being degraded.  Worse, the stable and livable climate (natural capital) is being degraded by burning the very same fossil fuels that enabled Dubai’s success.  Climate change endangers all Dubai’s other investments.  Drinking water, even desalinated, becomes unsafe when piped and stored at higher temperature, workers get heat stroke and die at 50 degrees C, and roads and buildings flood and sink as sea-levels rise.  Keen vision, wise investments, and good governance will be needed to sustain development in Dubai, and in most other places on Earth.

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Real Time Tragedy

Khonoma illustrates the real-time dismantling by global capitalism of generations-old knowledge and norms that sustain food, water, culture, and people.  It’s a sadly familiar struggle that has played out countless times around the globe: here in Khonoma you can feel and see it unfolding.

Khonoma is a village of 3-4000 people that thrived for centuries in what seems an agrarian paradise nestled in the steep and rugged hillsides of Nagaland in northeast India, near Burma.  Rich cultural traditions are pridefully commemorated, shared, and celebrated, including decision circles where community members gather to speak, resolve conflict, and plan for the future. Villagers pridefully note their ancestors successfully resisted Britain’s colonial efforts.

Generations of learning-by-doing produced agri-cultural practices that sustain natural beauty, cultural integrity, and abundant water, food, and fuel.  Several examples:

Wild vegetables grow abundantly in the village’s commonly shared forests and fields. Residents regularly consume them in daily meals, creating a distinctive cuisine (worth the trip!).  Villagers may harvest as much as their families can eat, but may not sell any excess in the market for a profit.  This limit on capitalist trade protects the vegetables from exploitation—people get what they need, but not more to sell and purchase luxuries. 

Families manage their own terraced fields to grow vegetables and rice for their own consumption as well as sale in the nearest villages or city (Kohima).  The water on which the crops depend is shared.  Clusters of 5-10 terraces are networked so that water flows from one terrace to another. Over generations, the norm emerged that the owner of the lowest terrace controls the flow of water into the top terrace so everyone is motivated to collaborate and share the water needed for all crops and families to flourish.

Wild apple trees grow in the village’s commonly owned and managed forest.  They produce a delightful and highly sought-after snack of fermented dried apples. Yum!  Demand from neighboring population centers and tourists quickly outpace supply, so dried apple production provides a great way to supplement household income. Why aren’t apple trees aren’t over-exploited?  A norm has emerged that allows villagers to only harvest apples fallen to the ground, that way the resource is shared and the trees protected  (they break when climbed).

Many other norms and shared practices exist to not just sustain ample agriculture, fuel, and water, but also promote a thriving culture.  Crime is low to nonexistent.  Elders are respected. Celebrations are common. All children are well educated.  Everyone morns a death and celebrates a birth.  People work hard and have dignity.

Global capitalism is eroding it all.  The norms and practices that sustain the commons must be maintained by celebrating the people who conform and shaming and blaming those that don’t.  That social fabric is fraying.  Wealth leads to inequity that leads to envy.  A few families are getting rich by working in the nearest city or, because they are so well educated, joining the professional class elsewhere. Acting in their own rational best interests, those benefiting from capitalism’s rewards build bigger houses, send their children away to better schools, and connect to networks and opportunities outside the village.  Factions form within the community that undermine the collective decision-making process.

Tourism enters: first as a rational self-interested way for villagers to make money.  Residents add rooms and provide homestays.  A hotel or two go up. Guided walks emerge and village homes get visited to view residents as they make baskets, weave tapestries, and cook distinctive cuisine. At first, the village craftsman and craftswomen are flattered by the attention and eager to please.  The early explorer tourists, who seek authenticity and happily endure travel hardships, are tremendously respectful.  But, looking into the future, it’s easy to see that a different class of tourists will come, wanting escape and entertainment and comfort and service and standards to which they’ve grown accustomed back in the city. The craftspeople will be objectified, demeaned, and turned into roadside attractions.

Khonoma’s traditional culture is a commons resource and villagers don’t have the norms and practices they need to prevent destroying it because village elders, who, over generations of learning by doing, figured out how to sustain tangible resources such as food, fuel, and water, did not create practices and norms for protecting culture from tourism.  A few villagers will likely get wealthy before the charm wears off, but Khonoma could lose that special something that defines it.  The social fabric could continue to weaken.  Further, the transportation systems that the government is improving so as to attract tourists will also enable locals to more easily commute to work outside the village and earn more money than agriculture allows (in part because global trade keeps driving down the price of commodities)  Easily bought food and fuel will replace what villagers now produce with intense and prolonged manual labor. Traditional practices and norms will be forgotten.  Another culture will bite the dust.  So seems one likely scenario.

Some of the most perplexing sustainability challenges emerge because of this phenomenon: the tragedy of the commons. In the classic formulation, a few individuals acting in their own best interest put extra cows on the common grazing land, increasing their family’s milk productivity and income.  Others follow suit. The accumulating pressures of many more cows eventually destroy the pasture and everyone is worse off as a result.  Individually, people are acting rationally; collectively, they act as if insane, creating results no one wants.  Capitalism and markets can’t solve many of these problems—but wise village elders could, given the time to do so.  Unfortunately, the problems we face today differ dramatically from anything village elders could imagine—climate change and cultural exploitation among them.  Fortunately solutions exit, but they require good governance.  Engage!

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Rural Development Dilemma

Study tours help sustainable development professionals witness globally relevant challenges and innovations.  Most recently I was leading a CLiGS study tour in India, where teachable moments abound.  India’s development trajectory will likely be the most significant in human history and thus the most consequential for global sustainability challenges.  Take urbanization. India is set to be fastest urbanizing country in history: a new New York City built every year to accommodate the rural to urban migration.  The strain on urban infrastructure is intense: construction is continuous and haphazard; building codes, property rights, and zoning are lightly or unenforced in exchange for speed and volume; congestion and pollution are crippling health and productivity; informal settlements where new migrants are forced to live often lack water, sanitation, and transportation to jobs; and strong-arm tactics by unscrupulous developers and water mafia intimidate the weak and vulnerable.  Still, people continue to migrate from rural to urban areas. Why?

Historically, urban areas provide better access to mates, education, healthcare, human rights, and higher paying jobs.  Rural areas tend to be remote, conservative, underserviced by hospitals and schools, and require working in agriculture, which in India means long hours of manual labor for subsistence or poverty wages.

My students and I typically visit several livelihood development NGOs that target rural people.  The leaders and professionals of these organizations never fail to impress and typically awe me and my students with their leadership chops, deep expertise, compassion, and their ability to straddle traditional and modern cultures.  The learning opportunities for students are profound and local professionals are generous with their time.

But here is the dilemma I wrestle with: the livelihood development projects we study clearly and markedly improve quality of life in rural people, that’s clearly a good thing, but do they also just delay eventual urban migration and prolong patriarchal oppression and manual labor of disempowered people (esp., women)?  That is, are the countless rural livelihood development efforts around the world unwisely enticing people to linger in rural villages by modestly improving their education and healthcare, by increasing access to fresh water, and by helping them market farm goods and traditional crafts?  Should we instead be investing in improving urban migration and urban conditions?

Here is a fascinating example of the dilemma.  The Sunderbuns is a heavily populated, biologically rich, World Heritage Mangrove wetland located in eastern India near Kolkata.  Farms produce rice, vegetables, shrimp, crabs, and fish.  Most of the farmers live in poverty: above horrible 2-dollar day abject poverty but many still have mud floors and lack key indicators of having entered the global middle class (washing machines or motorized transport such as a motorcycle).

Amarkhamar is one of the many impressive organizations working in the Sunderbuns to improve rural livability.  They developed a software platform that allows farmers, mostly women, to sell directly to urban foodies. The result empowers women to bypass middleman who previously could scam and set the price because they had the advantage of better transportation and information. Now, the women know the price of rice and can work through Amarkhamar to sell directly to wealthy urban Indians who care about where their rice comes from and are willing to pay a price differential for distinctive heritage rice flavors and organic production. My students interviewed several of the women farmers and the empowerment and added wealth we witnessed were impressive.  The extra income changes family dynamics and empowers women to help their families save for children education and other middle-class purchases.  Because the rice is certified organic, the women report health benefits from not having to employ pesticides in the crops near where they work and live.  They also report stable rice yields and lower cost of inputs (chemicals and fertilizer), making family finance more resilient to rice price fluctuations and crop failures.

Unfortunately, the income bump, while significant for those living near the poverty line, is marginal by middle-class standards—several hundred dollars a year.  Moreover, the Sundarbans could be underwater in 100 years due to climate change and sea level rise. Farmers already see rising water, more flooding, rapidly declining aquifers from where their fresh water is pumped, and saltwater intrusion into those aquifers.

Should society encourage innovative and noble efforts such as Amarkhamar’s that help people stay in place and measurably improve their lives? Or, should we instead focus our innovative and talented people and organizations on hastening and improving urban migration and city retreat from rising sea levels?

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Water, Waste, and Tea: The Need for Good Government

I’ve recently visited Darjeeling with a group of CLiGS graduates students studying sustainability. It was an old hill station built in the Himalayan mountains by British colonizers wanting to escape India’s summer heat. It remains the site of colonial-era plantations that grow world-famous Darjeeling tea.  It turns out, harvesting and processing the tea exploits workers (surprise!), especially women (surprise!), some of whom have been living in plantation-provided housing for 8 generations:  workers can earn as little as a dollar a day and live in houses provided by their employers and are given allowances for food and certain household necessities—all in partial payment of wages.  These sorts of human rights, inequities, cast, and social justice issues permeate all of India, not just the tea plantations. However, the power of big money buying political protection makes this instance seem even ickier. And it’s blatant:  several dozen large plantations produce all the Darjeeling tea, so power is concentrated in a few companies who are difficult to influence because they are private and don’t have shareholders.

Consumer-facing product certification is having an impact.  Most of the plantations went organic not long after Germany returned a shipment of tea because it contained unsafe levels of pesticides.  Fascinatingly, and something I don’t fully understand, the plantation tea is certified as “Fair Trade,” a certification I thought is supposed to signal social justice.  Apparently, the tea-lobby was powerful enough to create a special category for large scale industrial grown/produced foods. Fair Trade, it seems, has very different standards for workers of plantations than workers of small farms.

We met community leaders and farmers at Mineral Springs Tea Plantation, a group of hamlets/communities outside of Darjeeling who grow organic tea along with vegetables and other crops using an integrative agriculture called “permaculture” that mixes and rotates crops co-mingled horizontally and vertically, including fruit trees, tea bushes, coriander, cauliflower, and ginger. The dense, lush, diverse farms stand in stark contrast to the plantations’ vast acreages of monoculture exposed to full sun. And, as far as I can tell, the labor practices seem fairer.

 

But despite Darjeeling being synonymous with tea, and the compelling stories of social justice and community organizing, I’ve been more moved by the extremely charismatic, brightly colored, high-density, low-rise neighborhoods nestled tightly against the steep slopes of the Himalayan foothills. The houses are eclectic, to say the least: each one unique. Most have multiple stories with overhangs, each one clinging to the slope on one side and looking out onto the valley deep below, on the other. Neighborhoods are more vertical than horizontal and a maze of uneven steps and walkways connect them.  They exemplify organic architecture. Most of the neighborhoods are busties, recognized informal settlements, but where most homeowners now have relatively secure property rights.

More specifically still, I was moved by the water infrastructure within these busties.  The municipal governance must be too weak and too overwhelmed by growth to manage the basic necessities of fresh water and sewage.  Municipal water runs only a few hours a week, so the city is draped by gravity-fed plastic pipes that middle-income homeowners use to connect their homes to water springs located somewhere uphill.  The wealthiest families have additional and larger pipes, connecting their homes to ports where private businesses truck in the water on a regular basis, for a fee. The poorest families have no pipes, children fetch the household’s water from springs before going to school. It’s a city with more water tanks per building than people per building: water and water storage dominate everything.  It is more than a daily necessity: water has deep significance to Hinduism so shrines and temples adorn most springs.

Raw sewage is juxtaposed amidst this maze of pipes, stairs, shrines, and beautiful architecture.  The smallest units of neighborhoods coordinate among themselves so that most all homes connect their toilets to sewage pipes that run downhill away from family and neighbors, but some pipes leak or terminate uphill of other neighborhoods, filling the many open steep, narrow, concrete channels designed to move heavy monsoon rains out of harm’s way with rivulets of sewage. All pipes eventually end, so all the sewage flows untreated into the creeks and rivers below town, where much of the city’s fresh food is grown.  

The accumulation of single-use plastic is overwhelming–wrappers, bags, bottles accumulate in all drainages.  Darjeeling has its own Victoria Falls, which was a tourist attraction half a century ago, clear and fast flowing, but is now a trickle of brown water and plastic.  When the monsoons come, it all gets cleaned out and washed away downstream–out of sight and out of mind, a fresh start each year! But it all goes somewhere.

I’m now in city called Gangtok, several hours north, in a different state (Sikkim). It is the state’s capital and although slightly smaller than Darjeeling, it clearly has a different level of governance efficacy and funding.  I’ve not toured the infrastructure as thoroughly, but what I’ve seen suggests a strikingly different water/sewage system. Pipes connecting homes to springs are still used, but less so because the municipal water system is much more effective. Neighborhoods and waterways nestled into the steep hills are much less polluted, at least by plastic. And sewage pipes lead to a centrally located sewage treatment plant, at least for the main city.

Witnessing the water, sewage, and fairness challenges described above re-affirms to me that some issues can’t be solved by individual responsibility or reducing governance to the smallest local level.  Some issues are collective problems that require coordinating across an entire city/region/nation/globe. Some people in the US ignore the irreducibility of problems and the need for good governance precisely because past governance has been up to the task of providing basic necessities, including a relatively clean and healthy environment.  

In the US, when people question big government and tout individual responsibility, they usually want to fire up the base. They want to widen a political divide that polarizes collective action.  They offhandedly discredit governance and government just to score political points. They don’t seem to know why they’ve got things so good. Perhaps they should travel more.

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Constructing a New Center

The political merry-go-round is pulling us apart. Too many of us now face outward, towards our individualized groups, and with each step away from the political center, the pull of tribalism becomes more and more powerful. We need a new narrative to hold the political center together, something to counteract the tribalism pulling us apart.

The voices crafting a new narrative are faint, but the message is becoming clearer.  Reasonable people are being pragmatists rather than fundamentalists, setting aside ideologies, admitting real challenges exist, and looking for solutions that work rather than defending differences.

Intriguingly, for me, as a left-leaning, center-craving moderate, the voices I am recommending to you (in the links immediately below) are from an ideologically libertarian think-tank and thus evidence that movement from all directions is possible and necessary.  The authors advocate what they call a “free market welfare state.”

Regardless of who authors it, the center’s narrative must do a lot. It must bridge the destabilizing polarization of right versus left, liberal versus conservative, republican versus democrat, and, most importantly, identity politics versus market fundamentalism. It must overcome uncompromising ideologs currently dominating political debate. And it must overcome two hard-wired attributes of human cognition that hinder constructive dialog and enable tribalism: confirmation bias and identity protective reasoning.

The free-market-welfare-state narrative has potential to do these things. It has roles for both free markets and good governance while recognizing the limitation of both.

Without a new narrative to bind the center, populism and fundamentalism on the right and left will produce more tribalism and more failures of markets and governance.  These failures will further alienate the losers of globalism and creative destruction, further paralyze politics, further divide families and communities, and further destabilize and degrade market and government functions–a positive feedback loop that promotes more populism and tribalism that further destabilizes and degrades market and government functions and ruins our chance to end poverty, achieve liberal ideals, and manage the commons.

I recommend these essays to you and look forward to the dialog they generate.

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